A hierarchical Gauss-Pareto model for spatial prediction of extreme precipitation

Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels

Quantification of precipitation extremes is important for flood planning purposes, and a common measure of extreme events is the r-year return-level. We present a method for producing maps of precipitation return levels and uncertainty measures and apply to a Colorado region. Separate hierarchical models are constructed for the intensity and the frequency of extreme precipitation events. For in...

Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Indices (North and West of Iran)

The frequency of precipitation extreme event can cause flood or change the drought period. Accurate understanding of these changes is necessary to take action to reduce these effects. In this research, temporal and spatial changes of 14 precipitation indices for eight synoptic stations in the North and West of the country were investigated. For this purpose, after reconstructing the daily preci...

A Hierarchical Max-stable Spatial Model for Extreme Precipitation.

Extreme environmental phenomena such as major precipitation events manifestly exhibit spatial dependence. Max-stable processes are a class of asymptotically-justified models that are capable of representing spatial dependence among extreme values. While these models satisfy modeling requirements, they are limited in their utility because their corresponding joint likelihoods are unknown for mor...

Climate informed flood frequency analysis and prediction in Montana using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

[1] It is widely acknowledged that climate variability modifies the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events. Traditional hydrological frequency analysis methods do not account for year to year shifts in flood risk distributions that arise due to changes in exogenous factors that affect the causal structure of flood risk. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis to evaluate several factors ...

Temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices over the lake Urmia Basin, Iran